Spurs Trade Target: Lonzo Ball
In my last two Wemby Watch write-ups for the Pistons and Hornets games, I wrote about the opposing teams point guards, Cade Cunningham and LaMelo Ball.
The Spurs desparately need a starting caliber point guard, but neither Cade or LaMelo are desirable relative to the price.
Cade, at first glance, seems like a great fit for the Spurs. But once you read Cade’s advanced stats and combine that with a large contract, it’s an easy no.
LaMelo is Lonzo’s brother and the more talented of the two. And while LaMelo is a top producer at the highlight factory, there’s no indication that he would ever play serious basketball — the type of basketball that wins games beyond Round 1 of the playoffs.
(Also, Melo just signed a 5-year, $260 million extension.)
But Lonzo has displayed that he can not only be an NBA All-Defensive Team type player, but that he can run an offense the right way while also remaining aggressive and making spectacular plays.
The Major Injury Asterisks
But there’s a catch, a rather large catch: Lonzo has an injury history a mile wide.
In the five seasons before his DNP in 2022–2023, he maxed out at 63 games played.
And his most recent injury occurred on January 14th, 2022 which means he hasn’t played in over two years.
However, recently a story came out that he was ~pain free. By way of the Chicago Tribune, here’s what Billy Donovan had to say:
“The pain that he was experiencing that was causing the setback I think has been eliminated in terms of what he’s doing now — but he hasn’t run. The next progression for him will be to start running and that will be here in January.”
Ball’s 4-year, $80 million contract is actually turning favorable now that the first two years have passed. And it’s almost a given that Ball will opt into the $21.4 million player option for next season.
This means that we have a relatively low risk, high reward situation.
We have to consider the reward (Lonzo playing and playing well) coming to fruition as a lower probability (25%), but still, can you imagine Lonzo paired with Wemby?
Lonzo Ball on the Spurs
Lonzo would match with Victor Wembanyama perfectly. Perfectly.
When he’s ready, Lonzo is the ultimate point guard for the Spurs:
- Thrives in the open court
- Loves to create plays for others
- Makes pinpoint passes
- Unlimited court vision
On top of these bullet points, he’s long, athletic, and a very good defender.
Additionally, in his last two seasons played, he shot 37+% from three and 75+% from the free throw line.
He’s also a fierce competitor and a great teammate.
One more plus, he’s still only 26, but he has five years of experience.
Trading for Lonzo
The Spurs need a starting caliber point guard.
Tre Jones is a solid pg, but he fits the role of a very good backup rather than a starter.
Jones is a horrible 3 point shooter (26.2%) and he’s only 6'1. He’s otherwise very solid, but he’s not the answer as the starting point guard.
The problem with trading for Lonzo is he can’t be depended on to be the starter; we can’t just slot Lonzo in for 2024–2025 because of his propensity to get hurt.
He is a guy that will truly need his minutes managed for a while so the Spurs will have to grab another solid point guard for insurance.
However, he’s the prototypical buy-low candidate. For a while, his career looked finished — and it still might be: it’s really bad sign when you’re in pain and the best doctors in the world don’t know why.
But this exactly how you gain value, you look for assets that are overlooked or undervalued by others.
Also, the Bulls can’t reap as much ROI from Lonzo as the Spurs can.
Outlook
I think the Spurs should take a flyer on Lonzo ball and stash him away as an asset until he’s cleared to play again (by himself or doctors), similar to the way they used to draft foreign players and let them gain experience abroad before bringing them over.
In the meantime, continue to look for another starting point guard.
