Wait, Could The Spurs Win the Championship This Season (24–25)? An Alien Says Why Not

As we draw closer to the halfway point of the season, the Spurs are 16–15, good for the 9th seed in the West and on pace for a 42-win season.

The over/under win total before the season was 36 and I knew that was wrong — I put the Spurs at 45 in my season preview and I’m sticking with that prediction. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Spurs exceed 45.

How did I know the Spurs would crush the over?

A. Chris Paul. Just look at his body of work, particularly with OKC and Phoenix — when he shows up, teams somehow magically get more competitive.

B. Wemby’s progression. The Unicorn Alien was only going to get better.

And most importantly, C. No artificial suppression (i.e., tanking). When something runs artificial interference, you know the results are skewed. Pop was throwing everything at racking up losses last season, and Victor’s burgeoning talent was still dragging the Spurs to wins.

That same tanking made my 2023–2024 prediction way off, but with the invisible hand lifted, the Spurs are off to the races.

But Championship?

The Spurs current championship odds are 150:1 per Odds Shark. Here’s the updated breakdown for most teams:

• Boston Celtics+240
• Oklahoma City Thunder+350
• Cleveland Cavaliers+850
• Dallas Mavericks+1200
• New York Knicks+1200
• Denver Nuggets+1600
• Golden State Warriors+1800
• Phoenix Suns+1800
• Milwaukee Bucks+2200
• Memphis Grizzlies+2500
• Minnesota Timberwolves+2500
• LA Lakers+2800
• Orlando Magic+3300
• Houston Rockets+4000
• Philadelphia 76ers+4000
• Miami Heat+5000
• LA Clippers+8000
• Sacramento Kings+8000
• Indiana Pacers+10000
• Atlanta Hawks+12500
• San Antonio Spurs+15000
• New Orleans Pelicans+40000
• Charlotte Hornets+50000

The Spurs sit way down the ladder, right above the Pelicans and Hornets. While there’s a significant gulf between the Spurs and Pelicans at 150:1 vs. 400:1, that’s their nearby company.

Yet if the Spurs start playing more cohesively, what’s stopping them from having a chance to upset any team — including the elites: Boston, OKC, and Cleveland? The Spurs have already proven they can take down any second-tier team on any given night.

No team wants to face the Spurs with their asymmetric alien. What if Wemby gets hot from three? What then?

Currently, only Nikola Jokic and maybe Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are definitively better than Victor. Possibly Luka and/or Giannis, depending on who you ask.

But Wemby’s learning fast and the more he learns, he’s compounding his dangerousness (we’re counting it as a word). And that’s why you can’t count the Spurs out: Wemby’s rapid ascension.

He’s already living up to the hype. He single-handedly changes how opponents approach offense. He can score with anybody, and now he’s getting even better at launching threes.

And when we look at the supporting cast, there’s a lot to like:

• Chris Paul is not only still capable on offense, he instills a winning mindset and acts a coach on the team. His experience is unbelievably valuable for this young Spurs team.
• Jeremy Sochan. The ultimate Swiss Army knife in the NBA. He can do it all and showed us range in the Knicks game. He becomes an even bigger problem if he can knock down over 30% from three.
• Devin Vassell. One of the reasons I’m so bullish on the Spurs is Vassell has been uneven since he returned. What if he returns to form? At his peak, he’s a star player. Not a superstar, but a star.
• Stephon Castle. The result of “the process” from last season. He’s already showing really positive signs on defense and offense. He hasn’t put it altogether yet, but he could be an invaluable force, particularly on defense.
• Julian Champagnie. An X-factor in this whole scenario. If he becomes a slightly better marksman and becomes more consistent on defense, the Spurs turn a corner.
• Tre Jones. What a backup point guard to have to spell Paul and Castle.
• Charles Bassey. Mercifully, Mitch Johnson has benched Zach Collins and we see dividends being paid every time Bassey gets minutes.
• Keldon Johnson. Johnson’s play is way down so it’s all upside from here and we know he’s been capable of a lot more from the past.

How It Happens

The Spurs are marching forward in unison now and they’re feeding off of Chris Paul’s experience and Wemby’s undeniability. This group is excitable and connected with one another.

There have been calls to shorten the 82 game season, but here’s an example beyond revenue of where more is much, much better. 82 games means the Spurs have 51 more games to gain experience, become more cohesive, and sharpen their play.

Unlike most other teams, the Spurs can weaponize their youth to wield another advantage against older teams who will be wearing down just as they enter the playoffs.

It’s not like the Spurs would be statistically likely to win, but it’s also not like you come across an alien everyday.

Introduce luck and randomness and who knows what could happen.