Spurs Anti-Tanking Optimism: The Push for 30 Wins and a Worse Lottery Pick
Whatever tanking Gregg Popovich and Brett Brown have been up to, I don’t want them to succeed.
I want the Spurs to rise up the NBA standings and finish with 30 wins, ahead of their Las Vegas projected win total and away from one of the coveted top picks in the draft.
To me, if the Spurs land another top pick, it’s like taking steroids — it’s cheating. Wemby’s enough. All the Spurs need to do is install a good coach (like a certain former Spur) and organically build around him.
I originally predicted the Spurs would make the playoffs, but that’s nearly mathematically off the table now. Here’s my write-up on the Spurs chances.
But what about 30 wins?
That would still constitute a remarkable turnaround from a 5–30 start. And it would mean that surely the Spurs never had tanking in mind.
Let’s breakdown the math:
The Spurs are currently 8–34 with 3 wins* in their last 7 games.
The asterisks is well deserved since they only beat the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, and Washington Wizards so it’s not like they’ve put it altogether, but, still, those wins count, too.
So we’re one game past the mid-way point in the season and the Spurs have 8 wins. This puts the Spurs on pace for exactly 15.62 wins which we’ll round up to 16.
But regardless of their pace, the Spurs have to finish these final 40 games with a record of 22–18 to reach 30 wins.
The Spurs currently have a .190 winning percentage.
A 22–18 record imputes a .550 winning percentage so there will need to be a significant turnaround. It’s doable, but we’ll need to see things like Victor playing without a made-up minutes restriction mandate to make it happen.
The Spurs Tankathon
In terms of whether or not Gregg Popovich abandons tanking, the key isn’t the number of wins per se, it’s the number of wins relative to the other bottom teams.
Currently, the Spurs are the third worst team in the NBA which means they are tied for having the best odds (14%) to end up with the #1 overall pick.
The odds remain the same for the #2 pick (13.4%), #3 pick (12.7%), and #4 pick (12%).
This is absolutely perfect position if your goal is to optimize tanking for a top pick while also maintaining an appearance of not completely losing on purpose.
However, if the Spurs start improving past being one of the three worst teams, that’s when they start losing valuable percentage points on a top pick.
Tankathon.com has a great table breakdown of 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds.
As things stand now, the Spurs are in a very solid position. Here are the worst teams in the league along with their win total.
- Pistons — 4 wins
- Wizards — 7 wins
- Spurs — 8 wins
- Hornets — 9 wins
- Trail Blazers — 12 wins
- Grizzlies — 15 wins
- Raptors — 17 wins
I’m pulling for the Spurs to win as many games as possible and slide down in the rankings to at least the #6 spot.
30 wins would get them there and maybe then some.
The Grizzlies recently lost Ja Morant for the season.
And the Raptors just traded Pascal Siakam.
So these previous playoff contenders will regress from their current pace. And the legitimately bad teams, including the Hornets and Trail Blazers, can easily drop a few additional games from their current pace.
The tanking race will definitely be something to keep a look out for in the second half of the season.
And a lot of eyes will be on the Spurs.
The intense pressure on Pop remains.
The Spurs definitely don’t deserve any more high lottery picks after winning draft rights to Victor Wembanyama.
